Agriant Commodities------------21-11-2023 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Nov 22, 2023
- 5 min read
Agriant Commodities------------21-11-2023 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics———————————
The Federal Reserve is going to shock investors next year by aggressively cutting interest rates amid a slowing economy, UBS says.
The firm said in its 2024 economic outlook it expected economic growth to slow considerably next year after this year's brisk pace of growth, and that should lead to reduced retail spending, a worsening consumer balance sheet, and a continued rise in the unemployment rate.
Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Dec '23 (ZWZ23)
550
Milling Wheat Dec '23 (MLZ23)
225
Weekly wheat shipments totaled 358,254 MT as of last Thursday according to Export Inspections data from the FGIS. That was a jump of 60.9% from last week (the largest weekly total since September 28) and 22.9% larger than the same week last year. Much of the total was split between HRS (51.47%) and Soft White (37.44%), as HRW and SRW shipments totaled just 39,708 MT.
Western Australia’s grain association has cut its forecast for the state’s wheat production again due to hot weather, with most of the overall grains harvest expected to be finished by the end of December.
The majority of wheat crops have suffered from drier conditions and yields have been coming in lower than anticipated at the start of harvest, according to a monthly report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. The state is the nation’s biggest exporter of the food staple.
The gathering of grains across the state is scheduled to be completed several weeks earlier than normal, and barley has been a standout crop so far, the association said. Overall, the lack of spring rain shortened the season and severely limited the potential of any crops that were later emerging.
“Cheap Black Sea supplies are encouraging importers to buy only hand to mouth.”
Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for December delivery were again well below western EU prices at about $230 a ton free on board (FOB), with January little higher at about $233 to $234 a ton.
Standard 12% protein wheat for November delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale at a premium of about 5 euros over the Euronext December contract.
Traders are also waiting to see if the election of radical libertarian Javier Milei as president of Argentina will lead to a relaxing of grain export regulations.
“This would also be bearish for world prices if the Argentines start selling more,” the trader said.
Ukrainian farmers have almost completed winter crop sowing, seeding about 5.8 million hectares as of Nov. 20, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.
The area included 4.02 million hectares of winter wheat, or 92.3% of the expected area, the ministry statement said.
Ukraine's winter wheat typically accounts for at least 95% of its overall wheat output.
The ministry still expects the winter wheat sowing area to reach 4.36 million hectares.
It said farmers had also sown 506,200 hectares of winter barley and 1.16 million hectares of winter rapeseed.
Producers plan to sow 692,100 hectares of winter barley and 1.2 million hectares of winter rapeseed this year.
"Ten regions have already completed the winter sowing. In other regions, the sowing campaign is also nearing completion," the ministry said in a statement.
Tunisia's state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and around 75,000 tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Tuesday.
The origin was optional. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Wednesday, Nov. 22.
Wheat BS 11.5 # FOB Panamax #190usd
Wheat Ukraine 11.5 # Asia Main Ports #285 usd
Wheat BS FW # Asia Main Ports #275 usd
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #300 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #308 usd
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean ZSF JAN 24
1370
Soybean Meal Dec '23 SMZ23
460.2
“China’s soybean imports from Brazil rose 71% in October from a year ago, data showed on Monday, boosted by cheaper prices following a bumper crop in the South American nation.
“China imported 4.81 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil last month, according to the General Administration of Customs.
“U.S. soybean export sales surged to a marketing year high during the week ending November 9,” as reported by Brownfield Agriculture News. “The USDA says soybean sales were nearly 4 million tons, led by strong demand from China as Beijing tries to shore up supplies in the face of planting delays and probable replanting in parts of Brazil.”
As mentioned, credit for a majority of the sales goes to China. The country has also been dealing with heat waves this year. As such, the second largest economy has been stockpiling soybeans in anticipation that the harsh weather could continue for the foreseeable future.
Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, notes Brazilian soybean farmers aren't keeping up with 2022's planting pace.
"The soybean planting pace in Brazil is the slowest in the last four years, currently at 68% complete," says Kluis. "A year ago, farmers were 80% done planting by this same time of year. Traders remain concerned about weather. The world balance sheet cannot afford problems in South American soybean production."
Soybean USA # FOB Panamax # 510 usd
Soybean Brasil # FOB Panamax # 545 usd
Soymeal Arg # FOB Panamax # 550 usd
Soymeal USA # Container F+105
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corn ----------------
Corn DEC '23 (ZCZ23)
470
Corn is trading on either side of unchanged so far on Tuesday, as contracts are fading off early morning gains. Short covering was noted on Monday’s strength, with preliminary open interest dropping 3,765 contracts.
Barchart updated their US corn production forecast on Tuesday, leaving yield at 183.74 bpa. The overall production total was raised by 738 mbu to 15.67 bbu in a 1.05 million acre increase to harvested acres at 85.29 million. That compares to the USDA’s current numbers at 174.9 bpa for yield and 87.1 million acres for harvested acreage.
Crop Progress data from USDA showed the US corn harvest at 93% complete as of November 19, 2% ahead of the average pace. ECB producers continue to struggle with a crop that refuses to dry down.
Corn futures closed out the Monday session with slight gains after bouncing on either side of UNCH early on. Contracts were up 1 to 2 ½ cents on the day.
USDA reported a flash Export Sale announcement of 104,000 MT of corn to Mexico for 23/24 delivery
US domestic corn demand is very sufficient for feed and ethanol consumption
CORN USA # FOB Panamax # 210usd
CORN UKRAINE # FOB Panamax # 175 usd
CORN ARG # FOB Panamax # 210 usd
CORN BRSL # FOB Panamax # 215 usd
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USA DDGS CNF Indonesia 312 Usd
USA DDGS CNF South Korea 310 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Taiwan 309 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Philipines 320 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Malaysia 315 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Vietnam 315 USD
USA CGM CNF ASIA 745USD
UKRAINE SFM CNF ASIA 365USD
UKRAINE SFMP CNF ASIA 375 USD
AUSSIE BARLEY ASIA 290 USD
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$1157
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #47 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #59USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax , #32USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Coaster #31 USD
BS /China /Panamax #55 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #50USD
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2023
Comments