Agriant Commodities------------ 18-12-2022 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Dec 19, 2022
- 6 min read
Agriant Commodities------------ 18-12-2022 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Mar '23 (ZWH23)
753.4 Friday Closing
Australia is likely to start the new year with a record wheat crop harvest and dominate short-term Asian demand, while supplies from Argentina and Ukraine are uncertain. Logistical challenges and wheat quality concerns though may compromise Australian exports.
A poor wheat output expected in Argentina in MY 2022-23 may also boost Australia's export sales.
For MY 2022-23, Argentina's wheat output is seen at 11.8 million mt, down from 23 million mt in MY 2021-22 due to a drop in area and yield amid dry conditions across key growing regions. Export estimates are down 38.7% on the year as a result.
Traders have increased their forecasts for French wheat shipments to non-EU countries this season as the war in Ukraine continues to influence grain flows out of Black Sea ports.
France has exported twice as much wheat this year than it did in 2021. It is forecast to export 10 million mt of wheat this season, reaching 7.5 million mt by the end of December. Exports will exceed last year’s season, which totaled 3.7 million mt by the end of December 2021, with total exports for last season at 7.5 million mt, sources said.
“France has never had to export so much of their available wheat,” a trader said, adding that there is usually enough output from the Black Sea.
France is the top exporter of EU wheat in the marketing year 2022-23 at 7 million mt, according to the EU Crop Observatory. EU wheat exports reached 16 million mt as of Dec. 12, up 5.7% year on year, with the largest importers of EU wheat Morocco (2.1 million mt), Algeria (2 million mt), and Egypt (1.6 million mt), according to the EU Crop Observatory.
“French farmers have been compensating for the lack of exports out of Russia and Ukraine, which is insufficient for what they normally export and because the market is offloading out of the EU very quickly,” the trader said.
Ukraine’s wheat exports will likely remain low this year as the war, which began in February when Russia invaded Ukraine, disrupted port logistics and affected trade flows, traders said. Ukraine’s wheat exports fell 52.1% in the marketing year 2022-23 to 7.3 million mt, agriculture ministry data showed Dec. 14. Likewise, in Russia, some traders said they expected the country to export up to 5 million mt of wheat in December, but they have since lowered that estimate and it is more likely to be around 4 million mt, according to Igor Pavensky, head of analysis at consultancy Rusagrotrans.
“The corridor is a real bottleneck with extreme cost and uncertainties and without clarity,” another source said. “We’re trading logistics nowadays while realizing we’re moving problems and headaches around.”
As for the weather, the Black Sea winter season is anticipated to create more disruption. In early December, most areas of Ukraine experienced cool weather with rain and snow, which contributed to the development of diseases and pests on winter crops in certain parts of the country, the country’s agriculture ministry said. Additionally, due to the poor weather, inspection of some vessels at the grain corridor could not be concluded, the Joint Coordination Center said Dec. 15.
Indian farmers have planted wheat on 28.65 million hectares (70.8 million acres) since Oct. 1, when the current sowing season began, up nearly 3% from a year ago, the latest data from the farm ministry showed on Friday.
Farmers have also increased the area cultivating rapeseed, a key winter-sown oilseed, to 9 million hectares as of Dec. 16, up from last year’s 8.3 million hectares, the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare said in a statement.
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro # 280 FOB / 380 usd Container Asia PK -HCMC-JKT-BKK
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro # 310 USD FOB
Wheat, Romania 12.5 # 320 USD ,
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver 360 USD FOB
Wheat, feed, Black Sea # 370 usd Container Asia
Wheat SRW # 340 usd FOB GULF
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #345 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #355 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean Jan '23 (ZSF23)
1480 Closing
Soybean Meal Jan '23 (ZMF23)
463 Closing
Rainfall over recent days has not been enough for successful planting of soybeans after an extended drought in Argentina’s core agricultural areas, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) said
.
Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of processed soy, but its usually green Pampas plains are being hit by a historic drought that is preventing many farmers from planting their fields.
“Despite some rains recorded last Friday over the center of the agricultural area, water supplies continue to be inconsistent and insufficient,” it said in its weekly report.
Farmers had as of Wednesday planted 50.8% of the 16.7 million hectares planned for 22/23 soybeans, according to a report from the exchange, marking a 14.2 percentage point delay from last year.
The grains exchange added that in the country’s core agricultural zone, planting was between 20 and 22.3 percentage points behind last year’s cycle. The longer planting is delayed, the smaller the harvest is likely to be.
Regarding the 2022/23 cycle for corn, the exchange said sowing was 42.6% complete – 5.1 percentage points behind the previous campaign. The planting area for the cereal is estimated to reach 7.3 million hectares.
The exchange said the condition of the fields varied extensively, even after the December rains. Argentina is the third largest exporter of corn in the world.
Argentina is also a key world supplier of wheat, but the 2022/23 campaign has also suffered from lack of rain as well as late-season frosts.
The exchange said 53.8% of the 12.4 million tonnes planted has been harvested, 10 million tonnes less than in the previous harvest.
The Rosario Stock Exchange had on Wednesday again cut its forecast for Argentine wheat production to 11.5 million tonnes, due to the impacts of the drought.
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA #550USD-545 USD NC
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina # 560 USD -510 USD NC
Soybeans, FOB NOLA #600 USD -580 NC
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB #590 USD-
Soymeal USA to Asia Container ZMF23+112
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Corn ----------------
Corn Mar '23 (ZCH23)
653 Closing
New crop corn prices closed a penny to 1 1/2 cents weaker on Friday, while new crop extended the bounce by a penny to 2 3/4 cents. USDA reduced the cash average corn price by 10 cents to $6.70 in the Dec WASDE.
USDA’s weekly Ethanol Report showed the average cash prices for ethanol ranged $1.87 to $2.20/gal regionally for the week, mostly 10 to 26 cents lower wk/wk. The week’s cash DDGS trade ranged $210 to $280/ton for the week regionally, mostly up by $5-10/ton. Corn oil prices were 67-75 cents, mostly near 68 across the country this week; that was mostly 6 to 9 cents/lb lower.
Weekly CFTC data showed managed money firms reduced their net long by 71.5k contracts during the week that ended 12/6. That was the largest net bear move from the specs since the week that ended August 2019 – fueled by 43k fewer longs and 28.5k new shorts. As of 12/6, managed money was 120,213 contracts net long in corn – the lowest since Sep of 2020.
Commercial corn hedgers had their largest net bull move since May of 2021 during the week. Their 57.5k new longs and 26.8k covered shorts left the group 356,614 contracts net short – the weakest since Sep of 2020.
The domestic corn balance sheet was mostly left alone in USDA’s December WASDE – save for a mostly anticipated 75 mbu export trim and a 10 cent reduced cash average price ($6.70/bu). Exports are now forecasted at 2.075 bbu, down 396 mbu (16%) from last year.
Corn, USA 2YC FOB NOLA 305USD
Corn, USA 2YC FOB PNW 320USD
Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver#280USD
Corn, FOB Romania 240USD
Corn, FOB Russia – 220USD
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 250 USD via Romania
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS
CNF Indonesisa 360 Usd
CNF South Korea 350Usd
CNF Taiwan 370 Usd
CNF Philipines 380 Usd
CNF Malaysia 360 Usd
CNF Vietnam 370 USD
USA Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB 880 usd
UKRAINE Sunflower-# – CNF Main Port Asia – 425usd
AUSTRALIA Feed Barley CNF Main Port Asia – 365usd
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$2,127
Europe to South America West Coast +6%
China/East Asia to North Europe-%33
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #55 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #60USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax ,#38USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Handy #30 USD
BS /China /Panamax #62 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #62 USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2022
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