Agriant Commodities------------17-7-2023 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Jul 17, 2023
- 6 min read
Agriant Commodities------------17-7-2023 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
A crucial deal allowing the export of grain from Ukraine is set to expire Monday unless Russia agrees to an extension.
The last ship to travel under the Black Sea deal left the port of Odesa early on Sunday, Reuters reported.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in a phone conversation on Saturday that the deal had not met its objectives
“[Putin] stressed that the obligations set out in the relevant Russia-UN memorandum to remove obstacles to the export of Russian food and fertilizers still remain unfulfilled,” the Kremlin readout of the call said.
“Moreover, the main goal of the deal, namely the supply of grain to countries in need, including those on the African continent, has not been realized,” it said.
Putin has previously complained about restrictions over its own exports but has agreed to previous extensions.
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Sep '23 (ZWU23)
667
Milling Wheat Sep '23 (MLU23)
232.00s
The wheat market rallied on Friday to flip to net gains for the week’s move. Futures were up double digits at the close. For SRW the board settled 18 3/4 to 21 3/4 cents higher on gains of as much as 3.4%. Sep SRW was up a net 12 cents for the week, starting next week as the lead month at a 20c premium to the now expired July contract. HRW futures were 2.8% higher with 22 to 23 cent gains. September closed at a 19 3/4 cent premium to the expired July contract. Spring wheat futures were 20 to 22 1/2 cents higher on the day, leaving Sep with a weekly gain of 36 1/2 cents.
Harvest reports from Kansas Wheat show recent rains have now delayed the harvest to ~2 weeks behind schedule. Some recent reports of hail are also limiting otherwise good crops, though overall the state continues to report highly variable yields based on individual crop maturity levels during the early June rains.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 395,713 MT of wheat bookings for the week that ended 7/6. That was down 2.5% from last week and by 61% from the same week last year. The total 23/24 wheat commitment was at 184.36 mbu as of 7/6.
The private French firm Strategie Grains estimated EU wheat output at 126.2 MMT, down by 2.5 MMT from their prior figure and 11.8 MMT below USDA’s new July 12 figure.
The Kremlin spokesperson says no “new statements” have been made over the grain deal with Turkey, contrary to earlier claims made by President Erdoğan.
Russia has not made any “new statements” regarding the grain deal, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, effectively refuting claims of an agreement by Turkey's President, Recep Tayip Erdoğan.
On Thursday, Erdoğan said that there is a “mutual understanding” between him and Russian President Vladimir Putin about the prolongation of the grain deal.
The deal, signed five months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is set to expire on Monday, and Putin has repeatedly threatened not to renew it because of obstacles to Russia's own exports.
Canada's weekly export pace down 26%, YTD at 44.05 million mt
Nationally, farmers reported planting 26.9 million acres of wheat in 2023, up 6.7% from the year before thanks to favorable prices and strong global demand, Statistics Canada said
The increase in the overall wheat area was led by spring wheat, which rose 8% to 19.5 million acres, as well as a 0.5% rise in durum wheat to 6 million acres, the data agency said.
Winter wheat, grown predominantly in eastern Canada, increased 20% to 1.4 million acres.
Across Canada's prairie provinces, farmers in Saskatchewan reported planting 6.9% more wheat, while in Alberta farmers reported a 4.4% increase in acres of wheat and in Manitoba farmers the wheat-seeded area rose 7.2%.
France, the largest wheat exporter in the European Union, is facing the threat of a reduced agricultural output this year due to low rainfall and the risk of drought. The impact of a poor French harvest will ripple out across the world, driving food price inflation up and hurting food security in emerging markets.
“Given likely disruptions to wheat from Russia and Ukraine, which between them account for a quarter of global supply, and the serious droughts in the United States (15% of global supply) and Canada (13%), the news from France (10%) suggests that five of the world’s six largest exporters of wheat are simultaneously heading for large production declines
Year-to-date rainfall in France has reached a historically low level of just over 200mm, which is only two-thirds of the median, according to the French meteorological service. This situation raises concerns about the country's grain harvest and the potential impact on food inflation.
France exports half of its annual wheat production of 35mn tonnes and is considered a reliable source of wheat in Europe, especially in light of disruptions caused by the conflict in Ukraine.
Additionally, India has experienced intense heatwaves, while China has been affected by COVID-related lockdowns and adverse weather conditions. These circumstances raise questions about whether these countries, home to nearly three bn people combined, will need to rely on imports, further straining global supply. China's wheat crop has already been reported as one of the worst in recent years
Wheat BS 11.5 # FOB Panamax #210 usd
Wheat Ukraine 11.5 # Asia Main Ports #275 usd
Wheat BS FW # Asia Main Ports #255 usd
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #305 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #315 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean Aug '23 (ZSQ23)
1490-0
Soybean Meal Aug '23 (ZMQ23)
425
beans bounced back and settled mostly higher on the day. August stayed red for a 4 1/2 cent loss, to the deferred contracts’ nickel gains. July soybean futures expired at $14.95 3/4, a 15 1/2 cent premium to the now lead month August contract. Soymeal futures were $1.50 to $0.90 higher at the close. BO futures settled the day down by 52 to 64 cents. USDA showed the cash B100 price was stronger in MN by 55 cents to $5.60/gal, but weaker in IL to $5.73/gal.
Analysts estimate the NOPA members processed 170.568 mbu of soybeans in June. That would be down from May’s 177.9 mbu if realized, but still a new record for the month. There was one less processing day in June. Soy oil stocks are expected to be 1.872 billion lbs. The NOPA report will be released on Monday.
Brazil’s CONAB unexpectedly trimmed their soybean output – mainly with a 1.5 MMT loss in RGDS, for a 154.566 MMT figure. USDA left their estimate at 156 MMT in the WASDE report.
August soybean yield has come in lower than in July only twice in the past 10 years (2013, 2021). The years where yields increased have even included a couple of abnormally dry Julys, but those dry Julys followed wet Junes and preceded wet Augusts.
The all-time high U.S. bean yield of 51.9 bpa was set in 2016, though USDA published that same number last August before the final yield was whittled to 49.5. The only higher August print came in 2020 at 53.3 bpa.
Soybean USA # FOB Panamax # 575 usd --- -oct/nov -- # 525
Soybean Brasil # FOB Panamax # 515 usd
Soymeal Arg # FOB Panamax # 485 usd
Soymeal USA # Container Q23+95
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Corn ----------------
Corn Sep '23 (ZCU23)
511
Corn futures ended the last trade of the week with double digit gains just off the daily highs. December was up 13 1/4 cents on the day and 19 1/4 cents for the week. July corn futures expired at $5.99 3/4 cents, a 93 1/4 cent premium to the now lead month Sep.
USDA’s weekly Ethanol report had cash ethanol prices were 2 to 10 cents higher for the week from $2.30 to $2.42/gal regionally. Cash DDGs traded from $185 to $215 through the week, mostly $5-10/ton lower. Corn oil quotes were mostly 3 to 7 cents higher this week from 58 to 66 cents/lb regionally.
South Korea’s MFG reportedly booked 68k MT of corn via tender – to be sourced from South America.
CONAB reported Brazilian corn production was 127.8 MMT, just a 2.05 MMT increase from the previous estimate and well below USDA’s 133 MMT. They had 2nd crop specifically as 98.04 MMT. CONAB raised total output via a 1.66 bpa equivalent yield boost to 91.51 bpa for 2nd crop. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that 58% of corn fields were harvested, maintaining their 34 MMT estimate. USDA has Argentina corn at 34 MMT as well.
CORN USA # FOB Panamax # 215 usd
CORN UKRAINE # FOB Panamax # 190 usd
CORN ARG # FOB Panamax # 210 usd
CORN BRSL # FOB Panamax # 215 usd
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS CNF Indonesisa 305 Usd
USA DDGS CNF South Korea 300Usd
USA DDGS CNF Taiwan 305 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Philipines 315 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Malaysia 305 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Vietnam 310 USD
USA CGM CNF ASIA 745USD
UKRAINE SFM CNF ASIA 365USD
UKRAINE SFMP CNF ASIA 385USD
AUSSIE BARLEY ASIA 300 USD
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$1270
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #45 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #57USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax , #32USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Coaster #21 USD
BS /China /Panamax #52 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #52 USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2023
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