Agriant Commodities------------15-2-2023 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Feb 15, 2023
- 5 min read
Agriant Commodities------------15-2-2023 Grain and Feed News
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Mar '23 (ZWH23)
782.6
Wheat ticked lower, although risks to Black Sea supplies from the ongoing war in Ukraine limited decline.
“Uncertainty on the Argentina weather continues to provide some support, but traders also see increasing harvest pressure from Brazil,” the Hightower said in a report.
Overnight trading mostly had March SRW in the red, though the contract is UNCH for the day session start. The other front months across all contracts are fractionally mixed to 2 cents weaker. CBT SRW ended the day more than a dime off its day’s high and 6 cents in the red for a Turnaround Tuesday pullback.
Preliminary open interest suggested new selling interest, rising 5,756 contracts in Chicago. KC wheat futures also ended in the red, but March HRW stayed above the $9/bu mark. Spring wheats were fractionally mixed at the close, with a gain for the March contract.
Wheat bulls are arguing that risk premium needs to be added to the wheat market as the Grain Corridor deal comes up for renewal in March. Bears argue that the Russians are making huge export sales at historically high prices and won’t want to upset global buyers.
The French Ag Ministry estimates 23/24 winter grain area at 6.76m HA from 6.71 previously, with a 10k HA boost to wheat specifically – now at 4.76m HA and 2% higher yr/yr.
Mar 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.86, down 6 cents, currently UNCH
May 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.96 3/4, down 4 cents, currently down 1/4 cents
Cash SRW Wheat was $7.26 1/4, down 6 cents,
Mar 23 KCBT Wheat closed at $9.06, down 6 1/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cents
Cash HRW Wheat was $8.69 1/1, down 6 3/8 cents,
Mar 23 MGEX Wheat closed at $9.32, up 1 1/4 cents, currently down 1/2 cents
India's wheat harvest is expected to rise to 107 million-108 million mt in the marketing year 2022-23 (April-March) from 102 million mt a year ago on the back of higher yields and favorable weather, an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of 11 analysts and traders has found.
Russian wheat prices rose last week on the back of stormy weather in the Black Sea and a rise in global prices, analysts said on Monday. Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content, delivered free on board (FOB) from Black Sea ports, were up $1 from last week to $298 per tonne, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said. Loadings at ports were down significantly during the week due to poor weather in the Black Sea hitting Russia’s capacity to export. Russia’s grain exports dropped from 1.02 million tonnes to 660,000 tonnes during the week, SovEcon said, citing port data.
In February, SovEcon says it sees Russia’s grain exports at 3.4-3.9 million tonnes for the month, up from 2.3 million tonnes during the same month last year, and comfortably above the February average for recent years of around 2.5 million. Russia’s agriculture ministry set the wheat export duty at 4,653.5 roubles per tonne in the period Feb. 15-21, up from 4,496.6 roubles for the previous week.
Sowing of spring crops could begin in the south soon, after the ministry also said Russia was ready for the spring season. SovEcon analysts said they expect the moisture content of soils in the south of the country to increase in the next two weeks, just in time for the start of the growing season for winter wheat, which usually begins in March
Wheat BS 11.5 # FOB Panamax #280 usd
Wheat Ukraine 11.5 # Asia Main Ports #375 usd
Wheat BS FW # Asia Main Ports #345 usd
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #355 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #365 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean Mar '23 (ZSH23)
1526
Soybean Meal Jan '23 (ZMH23)
496.2
Chicago soybean futures lost more ground on Wednesday, with pressure from freshly harvested record Brazilian crop entering the market.
The Brazilian soybean harvest was 17% complete by Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, while Scoville noted that progress was more advanced in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s biggest soybean state.
Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult lowered its estimate of the country’s soybean harvest to 153 million tonnes, down from 153.4 million tonnes previously, but still the largest on record if realized.
Traders continued to monitor war risks to Black Sea grain supplies. In the latest Russian criticism of a wartime agreement allowing Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, Moscow said on Monday it would be “inappropriate” to extend the deal unless sanctions affecting its agricultural exports were lifted.
China will increase its efforts to boost the output of soybeans and edible oils, state media reported late on Monday, citing a key rural policy document, as it continues to push for greater self-sufficiency in its key food supplies
Soybean USA # FOB Panamax # 600 usd
Soybean Brasil # FOB Panamax # 585 usd
Soymeal Arg # FOB Panamax # 590 usd ---NC 530
Soymeal USA # Container S23+100
Soybean # Container S23+2.73
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Corn ----------------
Corn Mar '23 (ZCH23)
677-4
Corn for March delivery rose 0.6% to $6.85 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, finishing higher after the USDA reported a slight uptick in export inspections.
Top soybean exporter Brazil is on the brink of also becoming the world’s leading corn supplier, but farmers there have not gotten an ideal start to what they hope will be a bumper corn crop.
As of late last week, Brazilian producers had harvested 17% of their soybeans, behind average and compared with up to 30% a year ago. Rainy conditions this season have all but solidified the record soy crop, though unfavorable timing of those rains has recently limited field work.
The delays have pushed back planting of the heavily exported second corn or safrinha crop, which may heighten the corn’s vulnerability to weather down the road.
Mexico has authorised the use of genetically modified (GM) corn for industrial and feed use, partially reverting an earlier ban, which has drawn the ire of US corn exporters.
In a decree, the government lifted the ban on the use of GM corn for livestock feed and industrial processing, repealing a previous decree from December 2020. The decree excludes other crops and maintains the ban on GM corn for human consumption.
Trade or imports of white corn should not be affected, as Mexico is self-sufficient in the production of crop, which is mainly for used for human consumption, the decree stated.
The decree is also a sign of Mexico's commitment to comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, according to which phytosanitary decisions must be taken in conformity with scientific evidence, it said.
The decision comes after repeated criticism from the US government and agricultural industry on Mexico's plans to ban the import and use of GM corn
CORN USA # FOB Panamax # 300 usd
CORN UKRAINE # FOB Panamax # 260 usd
CORN ARG # FOB Panamax # 300 usd
CORN BRSL # FOB Panamax # 300 usd
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS CNF Indonesisa 380 Usd
USA DDGS CNF South Korea 370Usd
USA DDGS CNF Taiwan 390 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Philipines 400 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Malaysia 375 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Vietnam 385 USD
USA CGM CNF ASIA 880USD
UKRAINE SFM CNF ASIA 410USD
UKRAINE SFMP CNF ASIA 430USD
AUSSIE BARLEY ASIA 345 USD
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$2,005
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #45 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #60USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax , #32USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Handy #25 USD
BS /China /Panamax #62 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #62 USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2023
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