Agriant Commodities------------ 13-11-2022 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Nov 14, 2022
- 8 min read
Agriant Commodities------------ 13-11-2022 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
*Russia said on Saturday there was no agreement yet to extend a deal allowing Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea, repeating its insistence on unhindered access to world markets for its own food and fertiliser exports.
Deputy Foreign Minster Sergei Vershinin was quoted by state news agency TASS as saying talks with U.N. officials in Geneva on Friday had been useful and detailed but the issue of renewing the deal – which expires in one week – had yet to be resolved.
He also said there could be no progress unless a Russian state bank that finances the farm sector was reconnected to the international SWIFT bank payments system, from which it has been cut off by Western sanctions.
The United Nations says 10 million tonnes of grain and other foods have been exported from Ukraine under the Black Sea initiative agreed in July, helping to stave off a global food crisis.
But Russia has repeatedly complained its own grain and fertiliser shipments, though not directly targeted by Western sanctions, are effectively blocked because the sanctions cut shippers’ access to finance, insurance and ports.
A Russian foreign ministry statement said Ukrainian grain shipments and “normalization” of Russia’s own farm exports were integral parts of a single package of measures to ensure global food security.
In its readout of Friday’s talks, it said the only “unhindered access of Russian food and fertilizers to world markets” would make it possible to stabilise prices.
A U.N. statement on Friday said the participants “remain engaged in the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and held constructive discussions on its continuation”.
Vershinin was quoted as saying that restoring access to the SWIFT payments system for agricultural lender Rosselkhozbank was a key issue.
“Without that, of course, we simply cannot move forward,” he said, adding that Russia had been assured by the U.N. officials that “they also consider this issue to be vital”.
The European Union announced on June 3 that it was removing the bank from SWIFT as part of its sixth wave of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine has accused Moscow of playing “hunger games” with the world. Russia, whose warships were blocking access to Ukrainian ports until the July deal came into force, denies using the grains issue as a tool to gain leverage in the conflict.
Russia briefly suspended its participation in the deal on Oct. 29 after an attack on its Black Sea fleet but returned to it just four days later in a U-turn by President Vladimir Putin after mediation by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat DEC '22 (ZWZ22)
813.6Closing
Three of the world's biggest wheat importers, Egypt, Algeria and Saudi Arabia all held tenders in the week ending Nov. 11 as volatility grew alongside uncertainty over Russia's willingness to obstruct exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
Russia's short-lived withdrawal from the agreement was based on a complaint about its implementation. In the final days of October, grain traders had been preoccupied by delays to the inspection process for ships entering the ports, rather than the possibility that Russia might immediately stop all shipments.
The UN-brokered agreement was signed in mid-July, and it is now uncertain whether Russia will attempt to block an extension when the initial four-month period of protection ends on Nov. 19.
A direct block would likely trigger another spike in prices. Most traders consider that unlikely, but the risk has complicated the calculations for those wishing to take part in the tenders for Egypt, Algeria and Saudi Arabia.
In Egypt on Nov. 7, GASC received offers for a total of 1.35 million mt of wheat shipped in the second half of December or first half of January but rejected them all. Then on Nov. 11, traders said the company had bought 280,000 mt of Russian wheat outside the tender process for $363.5/mt CNF, more than $6/mt below the lowest offer in the tender. That was GASC's first purchase since Sept. 1.
European wheat futures were little changed on Friday, having hit seven-week lows hit on Thursday, underpinned by strength in U.S. futures and wider commodity markets.
Dealers awaited news about between the United Nations and Russia on an extension to the agreement on a shipping corridor for Ukraine’s grain exports.
December milling wheat on the Paris-based Euronext unofficially closed down 0.25 euros, or 0.08%, at 327.00 euros ($337.99) a tonne.
A public holiday in France meant some market participants were absent.
Chicago wheat rose on Friday, supported by strong commodities and equities markets and a weaker dollar, plus hopes that China’s easing of COVID-19 restrictions could boost demand.
“Outside of the Black Sea, one of the main factors influencing price is the dollar weakness which is strengthening commodities,” said Rabobank commodities analyst Paul Joules.
“But we are seeing Euronext wheat trading in a range today, in part because the market is awaiting the result of discussions regarding the grain export corridor extension.”
In Germany, attention was on a large tender from Saudi Arabia for 595,000 tonnes of wheat.
“EU wheat will face very hard competition from Russian wheat in the Saudi tender,” one trader said. “Russian wheat is being offered at very cheap prices in export markets, with the country having a large crop to dispose of. This was seen in the purchase by Egypt late on Thursday.”
Forecasts of a reduced wheat crop in Argentina could lessen competition for EU wheat, including in African markets.
Premiums in German ports remained supported by shipment of previous export sales and a lack of farmer selling.
Argentina’s wheat exports this season will not quite reach half of last season’s shipments, the Rosario Grains Exchange (BCR) said on Friday, with only 7 million tonnes of exports expected after months of dry weather halved the 2022/2023 harvest.
During the previous 2021/2022 crop, the South American agricultural powerhouse exported 14.5 million tonnes of wheat.
Reduced wheat exports from Argentina are also bad news for global wheat supplies, already dented by poor weather in the United States and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all major producers of the grain.
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro # 300 FOB / 385 usd Container Asia PK -HCMC-JKT-BKK
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro # 315 USD FOB
Wheat, Romania 12.5 # 330 USD ,
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver 380 USD FOB
Wheat, feed, Black Sea # 370 usd Container Asia
Wheat SRW # 370 usd FOB GULF
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #355 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #375 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean Jan '23 (ZSF23)
1450Closing
Soybean Meal DEC '22 (ZMZ22)
407 Closing
Soybeans bounced on hopes that China’s move to ease some COVID-19 curbs might spur economic activity, potentially boosting demand for goods including soybeans.
An early-October frost and general lack of autumn rainfall created a window for Virginia soybean farmers to harvest their crop weeks ahead of wetter years.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Virginia Field Office reported that most Virginia locations had zero precipitation in past weeks.
“There are abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions in the state,” said Herman Ellison, NASS state statistician for Virginia.
Soybean harvests are 59% completed, compared to 47% at this time last year.
Charlotte County soybean and wheat grower Henry Carwile said he’s already harvested 120 acres of soybeans grown at Ridgefork Farm.
“We usually do a lot of threshing in October and finish up between the middle of November to Thanksgiving,” he said. “So we’re finished a little bit early this year. We had that real early frost too, which helped these late double-crop beans to dry down quicker.”
Joanne Jones, a Virginia Cooperative Extension agent in Charlotte County, has spoken with other soybean farmers who also enjoyed an early harvest.
Soybeans are sensitive to environmental moisture, and drier conditions can help combat crop loss.
“In this area, we went the whole month of October with only one rainy day,” Jones said. “With a long rainy spell, mold or fungus can grow on the beans while still in the pod and cause damage.”
Research shows that early planting results in earlier harvest and is critical to producing high soybean yields, which is what many full-season crop producers are doing, Jones added.
Double-crop farmers like Carwile now are taking advantage of the dry spell to finish winter wheat planting. “Double cropping” refers to the harvesting of two crops off the same land in one calendar year, such as winter wheat in the spring and soybeans in the fall.
While double-cropping can result in smaller yields, having two harvests reduces the risk of total crop loss, said Robert Harper, grain marketing specialist for Virginia Farm Bureau Federation.
“This way farmers are not putting all their eggs in one basket,” he said.
Soybeans in the field will continue to grow until stalled by the next frost, Harper added.
“Frost might take the top off the yield but will help full-season beans dry down better,” he said. “But we’re way ahead on harvest this year because of the dry weather!”
Many Virginia soybeans are exported to Asian countries, and others are used in food for humans and animals and in industrial and consumer products, including building materials, cooking oil and crayons.
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA #510USD
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina # 485 USD
Soybeans, FOB NOLA #600 USD
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB #605 USD
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Corn ----------------
Corn DEC '22 (ZCZ22)
658 Closing
Mexico's government cannot make purchases of yellow corn from the United States because it does not want genetically modified (GM) corn, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Wednesday, amid pressure from its top trade partner over the future of the imports.
The United States wanted to sell Mexico more yellow corn and Mexico declined, Lopez Obrador said in a regular news conference.
"There is a market for it, but the government cannot make a purchase because we do not want GM," Lopez Obrador said, citing a lack of scientific investigation into its effects.
Corn, USA 2YC FOB NOLA 340USD
Corn, USA 2YC FOB PNW 340USD
Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver#300 USD
Corn, FOB Romania 280USD
Corn, FOB Russia – 280USD
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 260 USD via Romania
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS
CNF Indonesisa 360 Usd
CNF South Korea 350Usd
CNF Taiwan 370 Usd
CNF Philipines 380 Usd
CNF Malaysia 360 Usd
CNF Vietnam 370 USD
USA Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB 880 usd
UKRAINE Sunflower-# – CNF Main Port Asia – 405usd
AUSTRALIA Feed Barley CNF Main Port Asia – 340usd
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$3,185
The global shipping industry is facing a new problem — too many containers
While there was a shortage of containers at the height of the Covid pandemic, the global economy is now facing the opposite problem: too many containers.
On top of falling freight rates, data shows container depots — used to house containers after they are unloaded — are now filling up or full.
It points to more signs of falling global demand and an impending economic slowdown.
Traders and shippers say the decline in global consumer demand is not a sign the global economy is normalizing after a frantic post-lockdown consumption rush but a downward shift in consumption appetites.
What has happened now is that the cargo is ‘on time’ again and hence you’ll see a slowdown in new ordering...
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #55 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #60USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax ,#38USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Handy #30 USD
BS /China /Panamax #62 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #58 USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2022
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