Agriant Commodities------------ 11-12-2022 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Dec 12, 2022
- 6 min read
Agriant Commodities------------ 11-12-2022 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
Corn , USDA pegged the U.S. 2022-2023 ending stocks at 1.257 billion bushels. This is above both the trade’s estimate of 1.241 billion bushels and USDA's November estimate of 1.182 billion bushels.
Soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 220 million bushels, below the trade’s expectation of 236 million bushels and reflecting no change from USDA’s November estimate of 220 million bushels.
USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 571 million bushels, in line with November’s estimate of 571 million bushels but below the trade’s expectation of 578 million.
2022-2023 WORLD ENDING STOCKS
USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 298.4 million metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade’s expectation of 300.9 mmt. Last month USDA’s estimate was 300.8 mmt.
For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 102.7 mmt., slightly above the trade’s expectation and USDA's November estimate of 102.2 mmt.
For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 267.3 mmt. This is slightly above the trade’s expectation of 267 mmt. and below the November estimate of 267.8 mmt.
2021-2022 WORLD ENDING STOCKS
USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 307.1 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 307.7 mmt. and USDA’s November estimate of 307.7 mmt.
For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 95.6 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 94.7 mmt., and USDA's estimate last month of 94.7 mmt.
For wheat, USDA pegged world ending stocks at 276.3 mmt., right in line with the trade’s expectation of 276.3 mmt. and the November estimate of 276.3 mmt.
2022-2023 ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL CROP PRODUCTION
For corn, Argentina’s production is pegged at 55 mmt. Brazil’s corn production is estimated at 126 mmt.
For soybeans, Argentina is estimated to produce 49.5 mmt. Brazil’s soybean production is pegged at 152 mmt.
MORE FROM USDA
“This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and greater ending stocks,” USDA says in the report. “Exports are lowered 75 million bushels as competition from other exporters and relatively high U.S. prices have resulted in slow sales and shipments through early December.
“Soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month. Based on a review of EPA's recent proposed rule for renewable fuel obligation targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022/23 is reduced 200 million pounds to 11.6 billion. Soybean oil exports are also reduced on historically low export sales through November. With reduced use of soybean oil for biofuel and exports, food use and ending stocks are raised.”
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Mar '23 (ZWH23)
734-2 Friday Closing
Euronext wheat fell on Friday in light trade as cheaper Black Sea supplies continued to curb prices while participants adjusted positions before the expiry of December futures.
The market was also awaiting widely followed world crop forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) towards the end of the session.
That brought it back towards Tuesday’s low of 299.75 euros, a weakest second-month price BL2c2 since Feb. 25, although dealers said 300 euros remained a strong support floor.
Front-month December futures on Euronext, which expire on Monday, were down 1.3% at 304.00 euros in small volumes.
Chicago wheat edged down as weekly U.S. export figures near the low end of market expectations kept attention on ample supplies from the Black Sea region and Australia.
News that Egypt had bought 260,000 tonnes of Russian wheat via private talks on Thursday underscored competition from Black Sea supplies, despite disruption caused by the war in Ukraine.
“The price weakness seen since October has been driven by a better-than-expected production outcome from the Northern Hemisphere harvest, especially from Russia,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.
However, Euronext remained underpinned by previous export sales for European Union wheat, including large French sales to China that are expected to drive a busy year-end port loading programme.
Cold weather in Europe was being monitored, although snow cover in northern regions and the absence of deep frosts were seen limiting risks of crop damage.
In France, 97% of soft wheat was in good or excellent condition in the week to Dec. 5, farm office FranceAgriMer said in its last weekly update before the winter dormancy period.
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro # 285 FOB / 400 usd Container Asia PK -HCMC-JKT-BKK
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro # 315 USD FOB
Wheat, Romania 12.5 # 320 USD ,
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver 350 USD FOB
Wheat, feed, Black Sea # 370 usd Container Asia
Wheat SRW # 340 usd FOB GULF
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #345 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #355 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean Jan '23 (ZSF23)
1483.6 Closing
Soybean Meal Jan '23 (ZMF23)
465.4 Closing
Beans closed with 11 1/2 to 14 1/4 cent gains in the nearbys, however the gains dwindled to a penny loss by the Nov 2023 contract. Meal futures were $5.40 to $7.40 stronger on the day. Front month BO prices were 32 to 35 points stronger on the day. The Jan BO contract is still 14.63 cents/lb under the monthly high.
.. USDA announced a sale of 718,000 MT of soybeans to “unknown destinations” this morning under the daily reporting system. Another 118,000 MT was going to China.
USDA reported weekly bean bookings were 1.716 MMT for the week that ended 12/1. That was more than double last week, and was 31% higher than the same week last year. The week’s shipments were 2.25 MMT for a season total of 21.17 MMT. That still trails last year by 16%, compared to the USDA’s WASDE forecast at a 5.2% lag. New crop bookings were 30k MT compared to the 0-250k MT expected going in. The total forward sale sits at 40k MT
For the products, traders expected 150k to 350k MT of soymeal sales (actual was 226,200) and less than 10k MT of BO bookings (actual was only 500 metric tonnes). Accumulated shipments sit at 1.755 MMT for meal and 11.8k MT for soy oil.
Chinese customs reports that Chinese soybean imports January -November were 80.6 MMT, down 8% year over year.
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA #550USD
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina # 525 USD October
Soybeans, FOB NOLA #600 USD
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB #565 USD
Soymeal USA to Asia Container ZMF23+112
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Corn ----------------
Corn Mar '23 (ZCH23)
644 Closing
New crop corn prices closed a penny to 1 1/2 cents weaker on Friday, while new crop extended the bounce by a penny to 2 3/4 cents. USDA reduced the cash average corn price by 10 cents to $6.70 in the Dec WASDE.
USDA’s weekly Ethanol Report showed the average cash prices for ethanol ranged $1.87 to $2.20/gal regionally for the week, mostly 10 to 26 cents lower wk/wk. The week’s cash DDGS trade ranged $210 to $280/ton for the week regionally, mostly up by $5-10/ton. Corn oil prices were 67-75 cents, mostly near 68 across the country this week; that was mostly 6 to 9 cents/lb lower.
Weekly CFTC data showed managed money firms reduced their net long by 71.5k contracts during the week that ended 12/6. That was the largest net bear move from the specs since the week that ended August 2019 – fueled by 43k fewer longs and 28.5k new shorts. As of 12/6, managed money was 120,213 contracts net long in corn – the lowest since Sep of 2020
. Commercial corn hedgers had their largest net bull move since May of 2021 during the week. Their 57.5k new longs and 26.8k covered shorts left the group 356,614 contracts net short – the weakest since Sep of 2020.
The domestic corn balance sheet was mostly left alone in USDA’s December WASDE – save for a mostly anticipated 75 mbu export trim and a 10 cent reduced cash average price ($6.70/bu). Exports are now forecasted at 2.075 bbu, down 396 mbu (16%) from last year.
Corn, USA 2YC FOB NOLA 305USD
Corn, USA 2YC FOB PNW 320USD
Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver#280USD
Corn, FOB Romania 240USD
Corn, FOB Russia – 220USD
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 250 USD via Romania
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS
CNF Indonesisa 360 Usd
CNF South Korea 350Usd
CNF Taiwan 370 Usd
CNF Philipines 380 Usd
CNF Malaysia 360 Usd
CNF Vietnam 370 USD
USA Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB 880 usd
UKRAINE Sunflower-# – CNF Main Port Asia – 415usd
AUSTRALIA Feed Barley CNF Main Port Asia – 340usd
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$2,384
Europe to South America West Coast +2%
China/East Asia to North Europe-%18
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #55 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #60USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax ,#38USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Handy #30 USD
BS /China /Panamax #62 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #62 USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2022
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