Agriant Commodities------------11-09-2023 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Sep 11, 2023
- 8 min read
Agriant Commodities------------11-09-2023 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
Ukraine needs to strengthen its air defenses in the key Black Sea port of Odesa to ensure safe navigation, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday, as Kyiv searches for alternative routes to export its grain.
“Ukraine has successfully demonstrated the possibility of exporting grain via an alternative route three times already. We are ready to continue doing so,” Zelenskyy told British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in a phone call, according to a statement from the Ukrainian presidency.
“But to ensure the safety of navigation, we need help from our partners, in particular, a significant strengthening of the air defense system in the Odesa region,” he added.
Zelenskyy and Sunak discussed threats to the safety of navigation in the Black Sea and noted the importance of the grain corridor for global food security, the statement added.
The Ukrainian president expressed “his readiness to continue exporting grain via alternative routes,” it said.
Türkiye’s flour companies are ready to handle the Russian grain to be sent to African nations if the plan goes through, say representatives from the industry.
Erdoğan and Putin mentioned a plan with Türkiye and Qatar to help African nations by supplying 1 million tons of Russian wheat free of charge.
Amid the news, the representatives of the Turkish associations have expressed local companies’ readiness to participate in the proposed initiative.
Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of flour.
Turkish companies have enough capacity to process the Russian wheat into flour to be sent to Africa, said Kazım Taycı, the president of the Istanbul Cereals Pulses Oil Seeds and Products Exporters’ Association (İHBİR).
“We are closely following the developments… nobody can do this better than us,” Taycı said. “We are ready to do our bit.”
The Agriculture Ministry and the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will probably manage this process, Taycı added.
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Dec '23 (ZWZ23)
593
Milling Wheat Sep '23 (MLZ23)
236.00s
After spiking higher on the Black Sea updates earlier in the week, the Friday wheat trade is pulled the premium back out. Chicago SRW futures ended the session 4 to 4 ¼ cents in the red. KC HRW closed Friday 5 to 8 ¾ cents weaker. Front month spring wheat prices settled 4 to 4 ¼ cents lower on the last trade day of the week.
The weekly Commitment of Traders showed managed money funds added more longs than shorts in SRW wheat during the week that ended 9/5. That left the group with a 78,681 contract net long. In KC wheat, the funds were adding shorts and pushed their net short to 9,838 contacts. Spring wheat spec trders were shown at an 11,413 contract net short after net new selling.
Winter wheat planting may take a pause in the coming week, as NOOA’s updated 7-day QPF has 1” to 3” of rainfall accumulations for S.W. NE through Northern TX.
Euronext wheat futures fell on Friday as a rebound from a seven-week low faltered in the face of a firmer euro and continuing competition from Black Sea supplies.
Grain markets were also awaiting fresh direction from monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop forecasts on Tuesday, which will give a pointer to U.S. harvest prospects. GRA/
December wheat BL2Z3 on Paris-based Euronext settled 0.9% down at 236.25 euros ($252.81) a metric ton.
The contract was up slightly over the week, having recovered from a seven-week low on Tuesday.
Front-month September futures BL2U3 settled 2.2% down at 214.75 euros ahead of its expiry on Monday.
Data showing a large volume of certificates for physical delivery against the contract has created confusion in the market, though traders expected the figures to be adjusted in line with a relatively small open position in the contract.
The euro edged up against the dollar after a three-month low on Thursday. FRX/
The recent drop in the euro along with adverse weather in several wheat-exporting countries including Australia helped Euronext find a footing this week.
But Black Sea export competition hung over the market.
“The latest estimates of Russia’s wheat export surplus this week remains a bearish factor,” one German trader said.
Signs that Russian wheat was reaching Morocco, the main export market for European Union wheat in the past year, was also clouding prospects, particularly in France, traders said.
Export sentiment in Europe was also dented by signs that recent rain relief in Argentina may limit drought damage to wheat and allow Argentine exports to continue to Africa, traders added.
European traders were monitoring political discussions regarding grain exports from war-torn Ukraine.
Australia’s wheat production for 2023/24 will drop by double digits from last year, Gro’s machine-learning model predicts.
A weaker crop from the world’s No. 4 wheat exporter would represent a blow to wheat importing countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and China, at a time of harvest shortfalls in the US, Canada, the EU, and China, and Russia’s renewed blockade of Ukrainian shipments.
ABARES, an Australian government agency, has forecast a steep 34% decline in this year’s wheat production, partly in anticipation of a strengthening El Niño weather pattern. El Niño events tend to bring more arid conditions to Australia’s wheat growing regions, which typically drag down yields.
A Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary in Luxembourg could have access to the SWIFT international payments system within 30 days, the United Nations told Russia in a letter seen by Reuters, as the UN tries to convince Moscow to revive a Black Sea grain deal.
An EU ban on Ukrainian grain being sold directly in five eastern EU countries, which expires on Sept. 15, is likely to be maintained, some traders said.
“The high volumes transiting from Ukraine by truck and inland waterways to EU ports look like being big enough to clear Ukraine’s expected export surplus this season without disrupting east EU markets, so I think the bets are on that the present system will continue,” a second trader said.
Wheat BS 11.5 # FOB Panamax #210 usd
Wheat Ukraine 1.5 # Asia Main Ports #275 usd
Wheat BS FW # Asia Main Ports #255 usd
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #305 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #315 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean ZSX'23 (ZSQ23)
1366-2
Soybean Meal Aug '23 ZMV23
405
The soy market settled Friday’s trade with stronger beans and meal but weaker oil. Soybean prices closed the last trade day of the week with 3 ½ to 5 ¼ cent losses. The November contract ended the week on a net 4 ¾ cent loss. Soymeal futures were $6.30 higher on the day, completing the week’s move with a net $1.50 gain. Soybean Oil futures extended their drop for the week on Friday with another 28 to 71point losses. That left the October contract near at the low for the week on a 329 point loss. The soy oil weakness reduced CME Synthetic Soy Crush by 27 cents/bu to $1.78. USDA’s weekly bioenergy data had the cash B100 prices at $6.15/gal in IL and $4.85/gal in MN (-15c).
The weekly CFTC report had managed money funds closing longs and adding shorts during the week that ended 9/5. That flipped the group from 1,370 contracts net long to 35 contracts net short. Commercials had added long hedges and closed short hedges for a 9k contract weaker net short of 144k contracts. In soymeal, managed money funds were 8.6k contracts less net long at 65,122 contracts. Spec funds were 3,158 contracts less net long during the week’s trade.
Weekly Export Sales data showed 155.6k MT of old crop beans were sold and 1.783 MMT of new crop beans were sold during the week that ended 8/31. That was above estimates and near the top end of the expected range respectively. Of the new crop business, 962k MT were previously announced. The old crop commitments finished the MY with 53.43 MMT (1.963 bbu). New crop business is set to start the season with 15.94 MMT (585.7 mbu) on the books. That is down from 24.4 MMT last year.
Also from the report, USDA had meal bookings at 297,077 MT for old crop and 143k MT for new crop delivery. Those came in above and within the expected range. Soy oil sales were marked at 878 MT of net cancelations for the week that ended 8/31.
StatsCan data had canola stocks at 1.506 MMT for July 31, compared to 1.325 MMT last year.
Traders are looking for USDA to trim another 8/10ths off the national average soy yield in Tuesday’s monthly WASDE report. The full range of estimates is from 49.5 (-1.4) to 51 (+0.1). The average estimate for soybean yield is 50.1 bpa and output is 4.150 bbu.
Soybean USA # FOB Panamax # 550 usd --- -DEC -- # 545
Soybean Brasil # FOB Panamax # 545 usd
Soymeal Arg # FOB Panamax # 485 usd
Soymeal USA # Container V+95
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Corn ----------------
Corn DEC '23 (ZCZ23)
483
Friday’s corn trade ended with 1 ¼ to 2 ½ cent losses. That left the Dec contract at a net 2 ¼ cent gain for the week’s move.
USDA’s weekly Ethanol report showed cash prices averaged $2.11 to $2.28/gal regionally, but were mostly 6 to 15 cents higher for the week. DDGS prices fluctuated regionally from -$5 to +$20/ton with average prices near $200; +/- $25/ton. The cash corn oil quotes were 66-69 cents/lb, mostly UNCH to 1c higher for the week.
The weekly CFTC report had managed money closing longs and adding new shorts through the week that ended 9/5. That left their position at a net short of 93,913 contracts. The commercial traders were closing short hedges and adding long hedges for a 9,976 contract weaker net short of 93,506.
When the U.S. government published its August estimates for corn and soybean yields, many analysts thought those could be the lowest numbers seen this season given supportive weather across the U.S. Corn Belt in early August.
The bearish market feel was enhanced by last month's acreage registration data, which led some to believe U.S. corn and/or soybean plantings might be significantly understated, offsetting lower yields.
But the weather turned exceptionally dry for U.S. crops in mid-August, accompanied by bouts of heat that had been mostly absent until then. The last three weeks have been among the driest ever seen at this point in the year, especially in the western belt.
Analysts expect this month's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates, due on Tuesday, will show smaller U.S. corn and soybean crops than were predicted in August, driven by falling yield prospects.
Larger harvested areas are seen for both crops, but analysts have not exactly committed to some of the bigger acreage numbers being thrown around last month. This means that both area and yield could contribute to any production surprises next week.
ORN USA # FOB Panamax # 225 usd
CORN UKRAINE # FOB Panamax # 206 usd
CORN ARG # FOB Panamax # 210 usd
CORN BRSL # FOB Panamax # 215 usd
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS CNF Indonesisa 300 Usd
USA DDGS CNF South Korea 295 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Taiwan 295 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Philipines 315 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Malaysia 305 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Vietnam 310 USD
USA CGM CNF ASIA 745USD
UKRAINE SFM CNF ASIA 385USD
UKRAINE SFMP CNF ASIA 410 USD
AUSSIE BARLEY ASIA 300 USD
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$1455
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #47 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #55USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax , #32USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Coaster #31 USD
BS /China /Panamax #45 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #55USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2023
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