Agriant Commodities 03-4-2023 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Apr 3, 2023
- 6 min read
Agriant Commodities 03-4-2023 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
The exit of Cargill Inc. and Viterra means Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, will have more control over its food shipments and reap more of the revenues. Russia’s dominance in the global grain market was laid bare by the war in Ukraine, with prices surging last year amid supply disruptions.
Cargill and Viterra have been under pressure to give up their assets in Russia since at least December, when a series of influential figures — including governors of the country’s major grain producing regions — called on Moscow to limit foreigners’ influence in Russia’s food market.
Government-funded traders had already been grabbing a bigger chunk of the market as President Vladimir Putin made food sovere ..
It’s likely that the multinationals were encouraged to make a decision ahead of the new wheat export season, Sizov said, as exporters will start to sell the new crop in May. Meanwhile, Russia has been making it increasingly difficult for foreign traders to obtain the paperwork necessary to export their grain, according to people familiar with the matter.
The international trading companies have benefited from Russia becoming a major global grain exporter over the two to three decades they have been operating there. During that time, Russia’s wheat exports boomed fivefold, making the country’s wheat the global benchmark price for trade.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wheat -----------------------
Wheat May '23 (ZWK23)
698.6
Friday’s close left the CBT SRW contracts within a half cent of UNCH for the session. May SRW ended the week on a net 3 3/4 cent gain and a 13 1/4 cent loss for the month of March. New crop July SRW printed a 70 1/4 cent range during the month of March. Friday closes for HRW futures were 3 3/4 to 6 1/4 cents higher across the front months. July HRW was up 55 cents for the month. Spring wheat prices rallied 11 to 16 cents on the day, with Sep having gained 39 1/4 cents for the week and 45 cents for the month.
Russia’s grip on global food supply is tightening after two of the biggest international traders said they would halt grain purchases for export from the country.
The exit of Cargill Inc. and Viterra means Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, will have more control over its food shipments and reap more of the revenues. Russia’s dominance in the global grain market was laid bare by the war in Ukraine, with prices surging last year amid supply disruptions.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. is also weighing options to quit its main Russian operations, according to people familiar with the matter. Louis Dreyfus is considering reducing its presence in the country, the Kommersant newspaper reported.
Romania and Poland are in talks with the European Commission over export tracing mechanisms for Ukrainian grains to ensure local farmers are not hurt by a flood of cheap imports, the Polish and Romanian prime ministers said on Tuesday.
Ukraine, one of the world's largest grain exporters, has seen its Black Sea ports blocked since Russia invaded more than a year ago and has been forced to find alternative shipping routes through European Union states Poland and Romania.
But logistical bottlenecks mean that large quantities of Ukrainian grains, which are cheaper than those produced in the European Union, have ended up in central European states, hurting prices and sales of local farmers.
Romanian and Polish Prime Ministers Nicolae Ciuca and Mateusz Morawiecki told a business conference in Bucharest their governments were working on solutions with the EU.
Expect another year of drought-reduced US hard red winter (HRW) wheat production, according to Gro’s machine-learning US Hard Red Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model. Despite a 10% increase in HRW wheat acres, this year’s challenging growing conditions increase the likelihood of low production.
A significant portion of this year’s HRW wheat crop could also be abandoned, or plowed under, this spring, contributing to reduced production. A previous Gro analysis indicates dry years tend to have higher percentages of abandoned acres.
The HRW wheat crop, which emerged from winter dormancy last month, accounts for about 40% of total US wheat production. .
Wheat BS 11.5 # FOB Panamax #250 usd
Wheat Ukraine 11.5 # Asia Main Ports #310 usd
Wheat BS FW # Asia Main Ports #305 usd
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #315 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asi Main Ports #330 usd usd
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean May '23 (ZSK23)
1513.6
Soybean Meal May '23 (ZMk23)
466.2
Soybean price rallied upwards strongly on last Friday to surpass our waited target at 1470.00 and reach the extended target at 1500.00
Therefore, the bullish bias will remain suggested in the upcoming sessions, it might be preceded by some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic negativity, noting that the continuation of the bullish trend conditions the price stability above 1440.00.
Weekly CFTC data showed soybean spec traders were 99,522 contracts net long on 3/28. That was an 11k contract drop for the week mostly via long liquidation. The commercial soybean hedgers added 11k new longs for a 180,065 contract net short as of Tuesday’s settle. The spec traders added to their net short in soy oil via long liquidation, while the meal specs were 19k contracts less net long on long liquidation. That was 14% of the existing fund longs.
Chicago soybean futures jumped to a three-week peak on Monday, while corn rose to its highest is more than one month as U.S. planting delays and strong gains in oil prices buoyed agricultural commodities.
Chicago soybean futures were supported by bullish planting and stocks reports issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The government projected 2023 soybean plantings at 87.5 million acres, up only slightly from 2022 and near the low-end of estimates in a Reuters poll of analysts. The USDA also reported March 1 soy stocks at 1.685 billion bushels, down 13% from a year ago.
Soybean USA # FOB Panamax # 585 usd
Soybean Brasil # FOB Panamax # 565 usd
Soymeal Arg # FOB Panamax # 510 usd
Soymeal USA # Container SK23+90
Soybean # Container K23+2.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corn ----------------
Corn Mar '23 (ZCK23)
665-2
May corn closed 4c off its high for the day with an 11 cent rally out of the reports. July corn futures also settled near the high on an 8 3/4 cent gain. For the week, old crop prices were 13 to 17 1/2 cents higher. The month of March closed as a 13 3/4 cent gain for May corn. May remains a near 25 cents premium to the July. New crop futures closed the day half a cent in the red. December saw a wide 16 1/4 cent range on the day from -8 3/4 to +7 1/2 cents. December contracts roll into April following a net 3 1/4 cent loss for the month.
U.S. farmers are aiming to expand plantings of corn, wheat and soybeans this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a prospective plantings report on Friday, as the ongoing war in Ukraine keeps global supplies tight.
But adverse planting conditions are likely to trim back the expansion in some northern U.S. states as heavy snowpack and cold, soggy soils could delay spring fieldwork, analysts said.
Global grain supplies have tightened to near decade lows following Russia's invasion of major supplier Ukraine so larger crops in other breadbaskets such as the United States are needed to replenish stocks and temper food inflation.
The USDA said U.S. growers plan to seed 91.996 million acres of corn in 2023, the third most in a decade, and 87.505 million acres of soybeans, the third most on record. Corn seedings topped the consensus analyst estimate, while soybean plantings fell short of the average estimate.
CORN USA # FOB Panamax # 295 usd
CORN UKRAINE # FOB Panamax # 240 usd
CORN ARG # FOB Panamax # 285 usd
CORN BRSL # FOB Panamax # 295 usd
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS CNF Indonesisa 360 Usd
USA DDGS CNF South Korea 350Usd
USA DDGS CNF Taiwan 350 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Philipines 375 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Malaysia 355 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Vietnam 365 USD
USA CGM CNF ASIA 850USD
UKRAINE SFM CNF ASIA 380USD
UKRAINE SFMP CNF ASIA 410USD
AUSSIE BARLEY ASIA 345 USD
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$1481
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #45 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #60USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax , #32USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Handy #20 USD
BS /China /Panamax #57 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #55 USD
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2023
Comentarios