Agriant Commodities------------ 02-10-2022 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Oct 3, 2022
- 5 min read
Agriant Commodities------------ 02-10-2022 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
Russian president Vladimir Putin has signed a decree on routine autumn conscription, the Kyiv Independent reports. According to the outlet, Russia’s defense ministry “reportedly claims that the decision is ‘not in any way related’” to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The dazzling rise of the US dollar, which has hit one record after another, is raising fears of a currency crash of a severity not seen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis reverberated around the world.
The Federal Reserve’s rapid, steep interest rate increases and the relative health of the US economy has caused investors to flood into the dollar, driving the greenback up and sending the British pound, Indian rupee, Egyptian pound and South Korean won and others to uncharted depths.
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Sep '22 (ZWZ22)
921-4 Closing
-U.S. growers reaped their second-smallest wheat crop in 20 years due to drought in the Plains, said the Agriculture Department. The smaller-than-expected harvest would delay any American role in restoring grain flows disrupted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Wheat futures prices leaped to their highest level in two months following release of the USDA
-Australia has started harvesting its second-largest wheat crop on record but rainy weather exacerbated by the La Nina phenomenon will delay some regions and could lower final quality.
Farmers in Queensland began the wheat harvest this week as east Australian grains firm GrainCorp reportedly readied its depots to receive volumes.
In Western and South Australia where heavy rain has slowed crop development, farmers are expected to begin threshing at least two weeks later. Southeastern states New South Wales and Victoria are also behind schedule, with this part of the country likely to experience above-average rainfall as a result of this year's La Nina.
Most of Queensland, and eastern and central parts of South Australia, also have a 65pc chance of exceeding median rainfall in October-December, according to the latest weekly weather report from the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (Abares).
So far this season, rainy weather has generally increased Australia's wheat crop outlook — Abares in early September forecast the country's wheat harvest at 32.2mn t this year, representing the second-largest production on record after last year's figure — and raised both area and yield projections thanks to optimal flowering and grain-filling conditions. But continuing wet weather could damage crop quality, with Abares citing waterlogging and frost as the biggest potential risks to yields in the coming weeks.
Rain is also likely to slow Australia's internal logistics. Tight loading capacity for exports has already prompted the grain industry to invest in mobile shiploaders, while farmers are under pressure to improve storage and keep grains onsite longer without moisture affecting quality.Large export capacity from Australia will be key to ensuring enough supply to meet demand in the global market this year, particularly given growing uncertainty over Black Sea exports post-October. Buyers in southeast Asia could welcome a prompt start to Australia's harvest and new-crop volumes, as the market seeks to replace lower volumes from the EU this year.
And with crop conditions in Argentina continuing to deteriorate on drought and frost and Europe heavily sold for the first half of the marketing year, Australia's export capacity will be key to ensuring stable supply into 2023.
High volumes but lower crop quality from the southern hemisphere could boost demand for Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat in the coming months if suppliers look to blend different wheat grades to achieve milling specifications, with Canadian traders already seeing greater interest in contracts for December-February shipment rather than prompt sales.
-Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Thursday, European traders said.
The purchase was expected to be largely sourced from Russia, although technically supplies are optional origin, they said.
-Iraq plans to plant one million hectares with wheat and “a very small amount" of barley in its 2022-2023 winter crop planting season, the ministry of water resources said in a Sunday statement.
-The Iraqi cabinet directed the trade ministry to import wheat to store for the future, the statement said.
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro # 305 FOB / 385 usd Container Asia PK -HCMC-JKT-BKK
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro # 320 USD FOB
Wheat, Romania 12.5 # 320 USD ,
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver 380 USD FOB
Wheat, feed, Black Sea # 360 usd Container Asia
Wheat SRW # 370 usd FOB GULF
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #375 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #385 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean Nov '22 (ZSX22)
1364 Closing
Soybean Meal Sep '22 (ZMZ22)
403 Closing
on 26 September, soymeal prices in China surged 8% to CNY 5,500 (USD 739) per tonne compared to Monday last week. Following a jump in demand ahead of China’s national day on 1 October some crushers have had to stop production due to a shortage of soybeans. This could signal a recovery in imports after months of lacklustre demand and high soybean prices which have caused a 6.2% y/y drop in soybean imports so far in 2022.
Brazil’s soybean harvest in the first half of the year reached 126.0 million tonnes, down 9.7% y/y due to drought in the south of the country. A weaker harvest in the world’s largest exporter, coupled with rising feed grain prices due to the war in Ukraine, caused soybean prices to rise 14.6% y/y.
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA #540USD
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina # 420 USD
Soybeans, FOB NOLA #575 USD
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB #585 USD
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Corn ----------------
Corn DEC '22 (ZCZ22)
677.4 Closing
Argentina’s corn planting is well behind the pace of last year due to a prolonged drought, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday, noting that 5.8% of the area expected for the cereal had been sown, 11 percentage points behind a year before.
The South American nation is the world’s No. 3 exporter of corn. The same exchange on Wednesday estimated the 2022/23 corn harvest at 50 million tonnes, down from 52 million tonnes in 2021/22, hit by a scarcity of rainfall in recent months.
Corn, USA 2YC FOB NOLA 320USD
Corn, USA 2YC FOB PNW 370 USD
Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver#270 USD
Corn, FOB Romania 310USD
Corn, FOB Russia – 300 USD
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 320 USD via Romania
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS
CNF Indonesisa 360 Usd
CNF South Korea 350Usd
CNF Taiwan 370 Usd
CNF Philipines 380 Usd
CNF Malaysia 360 Usd
CNF Vietnam 370 USD
USA Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB 880 usd
UKRAINE Sunflower-# – CNF Main Port Asia – 405usd
AUSTRALIA Feed Barley CNF Main Port Asia – 340usd
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$4,060
Intra-Asian ocean freight rates are “sliding”, but the market is holding up better than long-haul trades, according to Dimerco.
In its September Asia Pacific freight report, the Taiwanese forwarder said demand for ocean freight was weakening worldwide due to economic recession and inflation, with macro indicators “not suggesting a quick turnaround.”
Dimerco added: “Overall, ocean loading factors ex-Asia for long-haul trades fell 94%. The upcoming weeks could drop to 92% or so.
“Weak demand has led to sliding ocean freight prices. Intra-Asia rates from South-east and North-east Asia are also sliding, but are relatively stable versus those in and out of China.”
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #55 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #60USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax ,#38USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Handy #30 USD
BS /China /Panamax #62 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #58 USD
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